The Post-American World

RAJESH C. OZA, ANUPAMA R. OZA, and SIDDHARTHA R. OZA

"Growth takes place whenever a challenge evokes a successful response that, in turn, evokes a further and different challenge. We have not found any intrinsic reason why this process should not repeat itself indefinitely, even though a majority of civilizations have failed, as a matter of historical fact."--Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History

This piece--co-authored by a middle-aged father, his recently-graduated-from-college daughter, and his college-going son--is a collective engagement with Fareed Zakaria's The Post-American World. The father is anxious about how effectively Americans are utilizing the advantage of world-class universities; the daughter is seeking to address the inequity of unequal access to higher education; and the son is optimistic about his fellow students' prospects in a greener post-American world.

The Post-American World opens with Toynbee's observation that while decline is not inevitable, new and different challenges require new and different responses. Zakaria, like Parag Khanna (whose Second World is also reviewed on Amazon) looks back to Toynbee while looking to the future. But the similarity between the two authors and their worldviews seemingly ends with Toynbee. Unlike Khanna, who coolly suggests that America is in decline, China is ascendant, and the rest of the world is on the sidelines, Zakaria strikes a more balanced and optimistic note.

Like an engaging and enlightening five-paragraph column for Newsweek International, The Post-American World is highly accessible. After the opening chapter concisely introduces an argument for "the rise of the rest," the next two chapters disabuse the notion that the world is a very dangerous place: "It feels like a very dangerous world.

But it isn't. Your chances of dying as a consequence of organized violence of any kind are getting lower and lower." However, this more peaceful world is no longer the economic or cultural domain of a Western system driven by an American engine. Reflecting this shift, Zakaria focuses the middle two chapters of his book on China as a "challenger" to the United States and India as a potential "ally."

But a post-American world does not mean a world without America. Nor does it necessarily mean an anti-American world. It merely means the end of the current unipolar global order. As such, Zakaria closes his book with an exploration of American power in the multipolar world and with an exhortation for greater clarity of American purpose.

Zakaria's honest and hopeful argument finds agreement with daughter and son: "America is a large and diverse country with a real inequality problem. This will, over time, translate into a competitiveness problem, because if we cannot educate and train a third of the working population to compete in a knowledge economy, it will drag down the country. But we do know what works ... Other educational systems teach you to take tests; the American system teaches you to think."

The opening epigram is echoed in the book's first sentence: "This is a book not about the decline of America, but rather about the rise of everyone else."

As powerfully demonstrated in the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, China is a big part of Zakaria's "everyone else" (though, curiously, Europe is nearly invisible in the book). A few facts about China give both Sinophiles and Sinophobes pause: "it is the world's largest country, fastest-growing major economy, largest manufacturer, second-largest consumer, largest saver, and (almost certainly) second-largest military spender."

Zakaria neither underestimates America's ability to be an exception to Toynbee's historical rule of preeminent civilizations failing, nor does he relegate India to history's dustbin of third-world status. While acknowledging that in dealing with China, the world (and more specifically America) is presented with new challenges "for which it is largely unprepared," Zakaria doesn't trade in tired lessons from the last century. Instead he recognizes that the world has moved beyond Cold War dynamics that required nations to take sides or be cast aside as pariah, non-aligned states.

Zakaria is brilliant in considering lessons of history while contemplating sophisticated possibilities of the present and future. Indeed, he suggests that India and China have moved closer, not only in terms of trade, but also by a shared stage of development that values peace and stability rather than a foreign policy based on isolation and belligerence. But this India is different from the 20th century India which maintained neutrality between the United States and the Soviet Union, while aligning itself with the losing side of the Cold War. This is an India which "is poised to become a great power at last. And at the center of its new role is a much closer relationship with the United States of America ... Indians understand America. It is a noisy, open society with a chaotic democratic system, like theirs. Its capitalism looks distinctly like America's free-for-all." Because the strength of its society overshadows the strength of its state, India can look to America for parallels to its own growth in hard and soft power.

The father finds much to agree with Zakaria, especially that "the base of American power--a vibrant American society--[is] its greatest strength and its weakness." He believes that countries like India and China are bringing new and different responses that are not always comprehensible to those who grew up believing in a Pax Americana and proclaiming American-English as a de facto global lingua franca. And while the citizens of these countries often do speak English, they are also fluent in one or more of the 6,911 other languages spoken in the world. And the peace they seek is a local one that may or may not depend on American might.

While Indians might look to leverage similarities with American society, some dispassionate scholars and highly anxious citizens on both sides of the Atlantic consider parallels between the United States of the 21st century and the United Kingdom of the 20th century. Many Americans bemoan the apparent downward trajectory of their country. "The analogy is obvious; the United States is Britain, the Iraq War is the Boer War--and, by extension, America's future looks bleak ... The familiar theme of imperial decline is playing itself out one more time. History is happening again."

But Zakaria believes that Britain's challenge was economic and America's is political; and while British economics were irreversible, American politics are not. He borrows a jauntily named economic concept called the "smiley curve" from James Fallows to dissect the argument that America is declining. Simply put, American companies outsource the low-margin manufacturing at the base of the curve, while defending strong positions in design and marketing at the highly profitable top tips of the U-shaped smile. And Zakaria believes that the best socio-political defense of this economic fort is higher education, "America's best industry."

The father hopes that readers of The Post-American World appreciate what Kishore Mahbubani, formerly Singapore's foreign secretary and ambassador to the United Nations, has to say about diplomatic dialogue: "There are two sets of conversations, one with Americans in the room and one without." If those of us making our lives in the United States remain in Mahbubani's cocoon, we will miss out on the world's new moment, a moment presaged by another statesman of Indian origin, Jawaharlal Nehru: "A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance."



From India Currents. Having graduated from Northwestern University, Anupama is committed to Teach for America. Entering his second year at Stanford University, Siddhartha is studying Earth Systems and Public Policy. Reading books and writing reviews, Rajesh is focused (with his wife, Mangla) on the other "r": raising children.

The Post-American World by Fareed Zakaria is a timely and useful book but the author avoids looking at the causes behind the Rise of the Rest at America's expense. The United States wanted to have too many things in too short a time in the misplaced hope that with its robust and colossal economic, military, political, intellectual might, and vast'intelligence' network, it would always remain an indispensable nation, particularly in the post cold war ambience. In the process, a whole two decades from the end of the cold war was wasted in failed policies and in turning a blind eye to the realities of international history and politics that has characterized all precusrsor great powers in history.

The rise of the rest has rather proved to be a zero-sum game for the United States because the traditional US economic policies of grabbing global markets from a geographically and culturally disadvantaged situation unravelled with the change of international order from protectionism to globalization. My book 'Tracing the Eagle's Orbit' throroughly lays bare the US situation in a lucid way.

However, Dr. Zakaria's suggestion to adjust to the needs of a changing world is at odds with American perception that America can't withstand a situation it can't bear. This book has quite a few illuminating suggestions and is indeed objective and that is why I would recommend the readers to read it.

Gautam Maitra
Author of 'Tracing the Eagle's Orbit: Illuminating Insights into Major US Foreign Policies since Independence.'

The historical and current events perspective on India and China are very interesting. However, Zakaria seems to be in love with capitalism as the solution for the world. I realize that he did not have a crystal ball when writing the book; however, the current economic situation calls into question the value of capitalism as practiced by the U.S. and imitated by China and India. Yes, this emphasis has helped to raise the economies of these international giants, but as I read the book, I kept feeling that too rosy a picture was being painted about the benefits of pure capitalism and the pursuit of "things." Another reviewer wrote that the book's optimism rang false in this regard, and I agree with this. I would give the book only 3 stars, except that I thought the author included a lot of interesting historical and foreign affairs content that made the book worth reading.

I read with interest this morning a article in the Wall Street Journal where Senior White House military officials believe that engaging in some level of discussion with the Taliban could help stabilize Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan. This is a major policy shift and one that is in line with my most recent reading by Fareed Zakaria titled the Post-American World. The book is full of opinion backed up with some facts and figures. His insight and cultural understanding provides and excellent addition to Globalization 50+ years from now.

Overview

The push of technology and economics is driving the world to integrate to engage in the opportunity of globalization at the same time globalization is driving immense cultural change and power shifts. The US has enjoyed since the fall of the Soviet Union a position in history that is unparalleled in growth, prosperity and influence. What may be seen as the dividend of wealth for those that understand the ideology of the free market and the value of democracy, will need to evolve into a world of where power and influence is brokered and earned not an inherited right.

Zakaria asserts that what we are seeing is not the fall of the US, but the rise of the rest. He asserts that the same way that Britain gave way to the US and joined the new team, the new world order which is underway requires the US to embrace its evolving role in this order. Power is shifting from Nation/States (only 100 years old) to powerful MNC's, NGO's, PetroCartels, and Drug Cartels.

The case for pessimism is strong in today's media. We are transfixed to violence around the world, transfixed to changes in the economy via Wall Street Week. Media brings violence close. Our need to know has collapsed to minutes and our ability to control world events that affect our lives is seemingly less and less. But let's look at the data and take another perspective. Over the last two decades through globalization two billion people have now come into the global marketplace. The global economy has grown from $23 Trillion to $53 Trillion. Emerging Markets represent half of the total growth. This growth has taken the form not only of exports (low cost labor) but also of internal consumption made possible through globalization.

Collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 80's confirmed to the world one path. This is free markets, free capital flows, supported by open governments and democracy. This leads to the flow of goods, mobile through large logistic chains, mobile capital, and then finally mobile labor. The three main forces of globalization are therefore Politics, Economics, and Technology.

US is the last super power. 5% the world's population has produced 25% of the worlds output more or less for the last 125 years. While emerging markets are ascending, you can look at the GDP data from 1980 to 2005. China has grown from 2% of WW GDP to 5%. This is the only developing geography to grow faster that the WW average or the US average. The growth WW was 6% and China's 10%. So on this pace change will take some time.

The growth in Global Awareness and attitudes is not balanced in the various elements of the US society. Global Awareness is coming from the exposure that US MNC's have to those areas of the globe that are growing. Growing as a result of the 2 billion people now accessing the global market place made possible through globalization. Universities are embracing globalization with globally diverse faculty and students and researchers. While these elements embrace globalization the mainstream remains suspicious of the benefits. Pew Global Attitudes Survey on Free Trade. The US opinion of support is dead last of the 17 countries surveyed.

The pace of economic and technological change is evolving into a more Western World. The example he raises is of Japanese students who no longer understand or take interest in the traditional Japanese society. This is something that is evident to any foreigner visiting Tokyo. As a result of these changes, one quarter of the world now speaks some English. English is the predominant language of the connected world. 80% of all digital information is stored in English. Over time economic and technological change creates wealth. Combine this with individual opportunity and this fundamentally changes society.

Interestingly, where you sit in this connected world often effects how you see the world. While what we see is filtered through the media - electronic information flows have allowed us to see the ways that others see the world. Interestingly too - is the creation of news, movies, and print media all made easier and more available though the electronic world. The shift in the world to be more global in nature is now meeting with a strengthening of local ties. This shift is worldview is more about power, than culture, more about wealth and poverty than about "being on the right side". This power is becoming diffused over time.

Zakaria goes into more depth in defining the growth of China and India as clear examples of the development of the rest. Much of this is a repeat of the readings by Friedman, Stiglitz, Wolf and others. But he carries a unique perspective being an immigrant from India and writing with Newsweek on the International economy

Reviewed By Stephen J. Hage SteveH9697@aol.com

In this book Fareed Zakaria paints crystalline images that reveal not only how the world is changing but also why.

For decades, after World War II, the United States enjoyed political, economic, ideological and social hegemony on a global scale. And, for the most part, even though a hegemon, it was viewed as benevolent.

Today, there is much talk and hand wringing about declining American prestige and power in most if not all of the areas mentioned above. Viewed through that particular lens, the situation is dire and spiraling quickly downward. Fareed Zakaria sees the situation differently. What he sees happening is "The Rise of the Rest." He makes his point by asking to consider this:

"Look around. The tallest building in the world is now in Taipei, and it will soon be overtaken by one being built in Dubai. The world's richest man is Mexican, and its largest publicly traded corporation is Chinese. The world's biggest plane is built in Russia and Ukraine, its leading refinery is under construction in India, and its largest factories are all in China. By many measures, London is becoming the leading financial center and the United Arab Emirates is home to the most richly endowed investment fund. Once quintessentially American icons have been appropriated by foreigners."

All this is from pages 2 and 3 of chapter 1. And while, in isolation, the quote appears blatantly alarmist rest assured that is not Zakaria's objective. He writes instead about American power and purpose by highlighting America's path, during the rise of the Western World, from the fifteenth century through the beginning of the twenty first; and he does this from the perspective of someone who emigrated here from India and became an American.

Zakaria's signal strength is his ability to write in a manner that mirrors what he sounds like when he speaks. Since I watch him regularly on his television series Fareed Zakaria GPS (Global Public Square), on CNN, as I read the book I constantly heard his voice in my mind. It was a pleasant experience. His formidable brilliance shines bright on every page and his thesis, instead of being alarmist is uplifting and inspirational. It's an easy read that deals with large and important issues.

This book is a MUST READ for anyone interested in what's happening in the world and in, not only how America fits but what it must do and why, as history proceeds apace.